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Thoughts at the close of a troubling decade

My philosophy of planning is that it is an uncertain business but one that requires decisiveness and clarity at all times. There is an innate conflict within that viewpoint, and reconciling it is what the actual practice of planning is all about.

As another decade--one that never acquired a name--comes to a close, it's appropriate to look back on some of the things we have learned. A key lesson for me is that uncertainty truly does rule our existence, but that does not prevent us from trying to understand how things hold together and drawing insight from that understanding.

So here are some things that I learned these last 10 years, some that surprised me, some that confused me, and some that validated what I long suspected.

From the railroads to the information economy

The American railroad produced the nation's original corporate capitalists—the ones we call tycoons, moguls, or robber barons. The first and greatest was "Commodore" Cornelius Vanderbilt, who amassed the New York Central system between New York and Chicago in the 1860s and '70s. This week's purchase of Burlington Northern by Warren Buffett seems to make Mr. Buffett a worthy successor.

via online.wsj.com

Some time ago, I had the good fortune to work on a branding strategy for a major affiliate of the railroad industry. Trains are such interesting things--partly because of their iconic status, and partly because of their vital role in the creation of our modern world. Plus, it's an industry that gave us model trains--which I still think are totally cool.

The new experience of text

I'm a fan of the blog, The Baseline Scenario, written by Simon Johnson and a few other economists who try to write in understandable language about the financial crisis. The blog is a good example of how solid thinkers who know how to write and have something to say can draw a substantial following. 

I don't know what the blog's traffic is like, but judging by the number of comments left by readers, it's got to be pretty good. Like many other good blogs, it will link you to some great material written by others in publications you would have never thought to look into on your own. 

In reading a post tonight about an article written by David Moss in Harvard Magazine, something struck me about the nature of text-based communication.  

Homage to the great Albert Pujols

This is a blog about advertising account planning, but tonight it's a blog about baseball. 

In particular, it's a blog about Albert Pujols, the 29-year-old first baseman for the St. Louis Cardinals, defending MVP and current leader to retain that award in 2009. Last night, Pujols completed his 5000th official at-bat in the Major Leagues, making him eligible for inclusion on the list of all-time career leaders in numerous hitting categories, including slugging average. 

Slugging average is a measure of a player's power hitting ability. The list of all-time leaders in this category is the stuff of legends. With his 5,000th at-bat, Pujols joins a list of the all-time greats. Only three players stand in front of him:  Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Lou Gehrig.  Albert is in his ninth season; he could easily play the game 10 more years. He may fall back in this list (he probably won't move up, but see below regarding that).  Injuries could set in, he may slow down, he may lose some of his edge. 

But his accomplishment at this point in his career is something that deserves special attention. In recent months, the national sports media has finally begun to pay attention to this remarkable player and recognize him for who and what he is. 

Visibility at the All Star Game played in St. Louis, where he caught the first pitch from the president, helped put him on the radar screen. Plus, he is a refreshing contrast to sideshow distractions like A-Rod and Manny Ramirez, both tainted by positive tests for steroids (not to mention their temperamental demeanors). It's about time that we stop looking at these lesser lights and look at the one who outshines them all. 

We need, for example, to put in perspective these numbers. While I am the first to revere the great history of our national game, and to bow to the greats like Ruth and Gehrig, I must also point out that those men played in a white-only league. They never had to face the greatest pitcher of all time, Satchel Paige, for example. They never played against Hispanic players. This is absolutely true for Ruth and Gehrig, and mostly true for Williams, who played nearly half of his career before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. 

Ruth and Gehrig played exclusively in the daytime, and night baseball led to dramatic changes in the game. For one thing, it dropped batting averages. There has not been a .400 hitter since Williams in 1941, when few night games were played. 

And here is something very interesting:  Pujols has played about one third of his games during the day, so his numbers in that particular split are statistically significant. His slugging average during the day:  .663, trailing only Ruth and well ahead of Williams. 

In his first nine seasons, Albert has hit a minimum of 30 home runs and driven in more than 100 runs. If he stays above .300 for this season, he'll add that tally to the list. Only one other player has done that in nine straight seasons--Gehrig. 

Pujols is not just a great slugger, he is one of the purest players in the game today. Two nights ago, right before he reached the 5,000 at-bat milestone, he went hitless but reached base four times on walks and by being hit by a pitch. In the ninth inning of a tie game, he was on first after being walked. He stole second, advanced to third on a wild throw, and scored on a sacrifice fly. On the bases, Pujols is constantly determined to score (he regularly scores 100 runs per season, as well). He literally stole what proved to be the winning run for his team. 

He does this sort of thing night after night. He is relentless; he never gives up.  

I grew up idolizing the great Stan Musial, still the ultimate Cardinal. Stan will always be my truest hero. But Albert is standing shoulder to shoulder with The Man. 

Let us stop and admire this extraordinary talent. 

Know-nothing creative critics--here they are

via www.flickr.com

This is just too good. No further comment necessary.

It's going to be a long time before we figure this stuff out

With a few days off work for the first time in a long time, I have a little while to think about things and about some of the challenges people in our industry are facing. On a day-to-day basis some of this gets lost in the shuffle. 

I'm thinking a lot about the decline of print, particularly the decline of print advertising but also of all things printed in general. I'll stick with "print" for right now, as this subject can get way too big, way too fast. 

Like many people, when I have time off I relax with reading. The last couple mornings I walked down the driveway, picked up the Wall Street Journal (which I usually take with me into work), and spent 30 minutes or so browsing through it. I don't do that at work. 

How did economists acquire their reputation with so little performance to back it up?

I notice today that retail sales for April dropped 0.4%. The Wall Street Journal noted that economists had "expected" an increase of 0.1%.

Why do we continue to care what economists expected?  I don't like trashing any profession--we all need to make a living and economists are no exception--but neither do our media outlets need to treat these practitioners of the "dismal science" as if they are mythic Greek oracles.

As far as I can tell, only a few economists picked up on the disaster that hit us in 2008. Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini come to mind, and when they wrote their doomsday scenarios starting back in about 2005, they were ridiculed by the mainstream of their profession. Both of them saw the housing bubble, raised issues about it, and Roubini talked up the problems in the U.S. current account balance. Roundly ignored--by their peers, the business press, and everyone else.

Forecasting the economy should be put on the same level as forecasting who will be in the World Series this year. Let it have its place amidst the chatter, but don't let anyone fool themselves to think it's any more than entertainment chatter.

Supply, demand, and the newspaper business

I'm going to mildly depart from what I usually do in this blog--which is focus on planning related issues and how planners can be more effective--and comment on an emerging social and economic issue that goes far beyond my own area of expertise. 

My subject is the state of the newspaper business and where it is heading.

There is one thing in this ongoing debate that bothers me a lot:  there seems to be--in the large parts of the digital world--a prevailing attitude that the demise of newspapers is somehow a good thing. It's almost as if the digerati are paraphrasing Trotksy and hoping for newspapers to be sent to the rubbish can of history.

The decline of brand value in the Great Recession

Brand strategists--including planners--talk a great deal about how brands are assets with real value. I'm not about to be a complete heretic and challenge that view, but it occurred to me it might be a useful exercise to apply some measurements to test the theory, especially in the midst of this nasty economy.

There is a little used stock measurement called the price-to-book ratio.  You don't hear it talked about much these days in CNBC-world and elsewhere (I'm not sure why), but it is the one measurement that exists to tell us how much intangible value there is in any given company. Brand value is an intangible, so somewhere in that ratio you should be able to tell something about the influence of brand in overall value. 

Planning and the Seven Deadly Sins

Planners always need to find new tools for insight, and the latest one may have come from the strangest place:  the confessional booth of the Roman Catholic Church. 

National Public Radio recently reported on a study by the Vatican comparing the difference in sins confessed by men and women. The study broke the sins into the classic theological clusters of the Seven Deadly Sins. It appears that men are most likely to commit sins of Lust (big surprise) and Gluttony. Women, on the other hand, are more likely to commit sins of Pride and Envy.