If Barack Obama wins this election, he'll do it largely without the support of white people. And if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because he won the overwhelming support of white people--and of no one else.
Does anyone bother to notice this and what it means?
Forty-four years after Richard Nixon marched to victory with the "Southern Strategy" we haven't made if very far, have we? Think about it: in 2008, the white vote in Alabama went 90% for John McCain. Tuesday it's probably going to be even stronger for Mr. Romney. Obama does better among whites outside the South, but--especially among working class whites--he's still in the hole.
The Republican Party is holding on for dear life as America's white people's party. With the demographic changes we see underway right now, things don't look good for them--not in this election and especially in the ones down the road.
I'm quite convinced that if Obama were a white guy this election wouldn't even be close. He'd cruise to an easy 55-45 win. Studies on the 2008 election confirmed that latent white racism cost him two to threee points at the least.
But there have been some interesting, subtle shifts. If the polls hold, Obama will likely win Ohio, and much of the credit will go to support among whites in the industrial working class of that state. Could this be the beginning of a Democratic resurgence among the white working class in general?
Let's state a bitter truth: the main reason the white working class is Republican is because of vestiges of the Southern Strategy. Nixon pioneered it, Reagan perfected it, Bush 41 used it as a blunt instrument (remember Willie Horton?). Bill Clinton reversed it a bit, but not entirely. Then the Democrats nominated an arugula-eating black man from Chicago.
If Obama wins this race, and the economy enters a reasonably strong recovery, there is the distinct possibility that finally--after more than 40 years--the white working class might return to the Democratic fold. It's something Democrats should work on assiduously. The party has ignored this vital group--first by taking them for granted and then by looking down their nose at them.
But if they see policies in place that actually help them and their families, and come to realize that Republican offer them NOTHING, the Democrats may finally be able to restore a large and lasting ruling majority for a generation or more.
It would leave Republicans with their country club base and with right-wing, white evangelicals. Not enough to win many elections.
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